Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. While the performance of the national economy will help shape the mood of the country and set the tone of each campaign, the situation on the ground in each of the nine states could be pivotal as well. Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information. But the length and depth of the recession make it more difficult to model behavior, and the slow recovery could complicate things. A recent analysis by The Financial Times found that job growth in swing states over the past year was slower than in the rest of the country, which could benefit Mr. Romney. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. And in Colorado, the only tossup state where registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats in 2008, the Republicans have widened their edge. In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin. While they all voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, seven have elected Republican governors since then and all have added significant numbers of Republicans to their legislatures or Congressional delegations. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of swing state voters believe the nation is generally heading in the right direction. To learn more about our methodology, click here. Often, that makes a compelling argument for a challenger trying to unseat an incumbent. Rasmussen Reports issues our daily Swing State Tracking Poll to supplement, not replace, individual state polling. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. Polls conducted in the past two months have shown Mr. Obama running even or with a slight advantage in several of the tossup states, but they suggest that Mr. Romney has an opening with voters, especially on economic issues. If he wins all three, he is likely to win the election. Therefore, if one candidate gains a slim majority of the votes from a swing state, all of the electoral college votes are awarded to that candidate, despite the votes of the other 49% of the state's voters. English: Presidential Election Results Swing by State from 2012 to 2016. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If voters in those states begin to feel the improvement by the fall and the economy does not take a turn for the worse, it could aid the president’s efforts to hold on to enough of them to win. Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time. Other demographic trends are likely to benefit Democrats: minorities make up a greater portion of the electorate in Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia than they did four years ago; and the portion of white college graduates has grown in Colorado, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license: The following pages on the English Wikipedia use this file (pages on other projects are not listed): (SVG file, nominally 959 × 2,382 pixels, file size: 306 KB). Iowa, on the other hand, may have missed out on some of the boom but was spared the worst of the bust: its housing prices have stayed relatively stable, and it now has the fifth-lowest unemployment rate in the country. If the file has been modified from its original state, some details may not fully reflect the modified file. Now, with many of those states transformed economically and politically by the recession, they are perhaps even less predictable than they were in past close elections. All three are among the handful of swing states likely to decide who wins the presidential election — states in different stages of a slow economic recovery. In several of the states, polls found that majorities of those surveyed believed that the nation was still in a recession. While Democrats retain enrollment advantages in most of the tossup states that register voters by party, their advantage has shrunk in all of them, state elections data shows. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. The president can keep his job if he wins two of these three states. The question, he said, is which way things go. Swing states take on increased significance because most states award their electoral college votes on a winner-take-all basis. Two states, however, Ohio and Wisconsin, saw Democrats push back strongly after their newly elected Republican governors worked to curb the collective bargaining rights of public worker unions, which could have ramifications in November. Correction: A previous version of this graphic stated that North Carolina was won by Obama in the 2012 election. “The so-called grumpy voter effect is that despite economic improvement in a state, if the economic situation in a state is really too bad, the voters will discount the improvement,” Mr. Cheng said. Since the housing bubble burst, Nevada has been plagued with record foreclosures, the nation’s steepest drop in home values and its highest unemployment rate. truetrue. The nine — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — offer both parties reasons for hope, and concern. Most states are safely in the bag for either the Republican or Democratic nominee before the election even begins. As the general election begins in earnest, it is clear that the tossup states are a top priority of both campaigns and that 2012 will include plenty of stops for Philadelphia cheese steaks, Cincinnati chili and Cuban sandwiches in Florida. Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe it has gotten off on the wrong track. (Want a free daily e-mail update? Republicans could also benefit from an increase in the share of votes likely to be cast by older white residents in Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Original file (SVG file, nominally 959 × 2,382 pixels, file size: 306 KB), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0 Romney leads by two in New Hampshire, Florida and Virginia. A recent analysis by The Financial Times found that job growth in swing states over the past year was slower than in the rest of the country, which could benefit Mr. Romney. Mike Schrader at work at the Pella factory in Iowa last December. All nine voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, only to see Republicans make big gains since then. The order of states … A disruption — caused, say, by the downturn in Europe — would most likely help Mr. Romney. The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012… Obama won the state in 2008, but lost it in 2012. Ei kommentteja artikkeliin Swing States 2012 Presidentinvaalit tuntuvat olevan yhdysvaltalaisille elämää suurempi asia. The sample includes approximately 1,300 Likely Voters, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground state that put George W. Bush over the top. The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The political outlook in the tossup states is far from clear. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year. The state has the fifth lowest jobless rate in the country. This is the first in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. With just over six months until Election Day, an analysis of the emerging electoral map by The New York Times found that the outcome would most likely be determined by how well President Obama and Mitt Romney perform in nine tossup states. President Trump's approval numbers posted every weekday, Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections, Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 38%, Democrats 38%, One-in-three Consumers Have Positive View of Economy, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls. Xu Cheng, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, which uses state economic and political data to predict election results, said his team had altered its model this year to account for “the grumpy voter effect.”. The economic outlook is mixed. Circle represents the result of 2012 election of each state, triangle is the 2016 result of each state. The Times analysis currently considers Michigan to be leaning toward the Democrats, despite recent Republican gains there, in part because the state benefited from the administration’s bailout of the auto industry. Obama leads by two in Nevada, five in Pennsylvania and seven in Michigan. Commons is a freely licensed media file repository. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. The candidates are tied in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. The share of white working-class voters has increased in Ohio since 2008, which could benefit Republicans, according to an analysis of census data by William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution. Nationally, Romney still holds a modest lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. With 60 Electoral College votes, these three states are currently Toss-Ups. The president’s Job Approval in the swing states is currently at 48%. But some of the new laws are facing court challenges. This file contains additional information, probably added from the digital camera or scanner used to create or digitize it. In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. The map of tossup states is likely to change, and it inevitably involves judgment calls. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. But political scientists have found that past elections have been more influenced by the changes in the economy in the year or two before the election. In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. Ohio suffered a steeper than average loss of jobs during the recession, but it has since seen its unemployment rate fall below the national average. Christopher H. Achen, a professor of politics at Princeton who has written about the impact of economics on voting, said that if the economy continued to grow at the current pace, Mr. Obama should benefit. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. Florida tightened the rules on groups that register voters. The number of voters ages 18 to 29, a group that helped fuel Mr. Obama’s victory four years ago, is rising in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and Nevada. The effect could help tilt foreclosure-racked Florida to the Republicans, he added. The Democratic enrollment advantage has also been reduced in Florida and Pennsylvania. Presidential Election Results Swing by State from 2012 to 2016.svg, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0, Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International, Präsidentschaftswahl in den Vereinigten Staaten 2016, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Presidential_Election_Results_Swing_by_State_from_2012_to_2016.svg. Romney has now led for 12 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time. And a range of economic data provided by Moody’s Analytics shows that all nine states are rebounding and that most now have unemployment rates below the national average. Moody’s Analytics, on the other hand, said that its forecasting model, which is based in part on assumptions about how the economy will perform in each state, predicts that Mr. Obama will be re-elected. Republicans are also making inroads in voter registration. In several states, Republicans have recently passed more restrictive election laws, which they say will fight fraud, but which Democrats say will make it harder for some of their key constituencies to vote. Background. It is virtually impossible for Romney to win the White House without winning at least two of these three states. Several states have cut back on early voting. It is no coincidence that Mr. Obama chose two of them, Ohio and Virginia, to hold his first official re-election rallies on Saturday. See the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. “This is a make-or-break moment for the middle class,” Mr. Obama said at Ohio State University in Columbus. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. In 2008, there was a consensus that six Swing States were in play near the election’s end, while there were 11 states in play in 2004. If it's in the news, it's in our polls). In May 2012, the list of possible Swing States ranged from nine to as many as 21 states. President Obama at a rally Saturday at Ohio State University. Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 The changing makeup of the states offers opportunities for both Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. (Swing State Job Approval Data Below Table). Nevada, which had 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in 2008, now has only 35,000 more. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania passed laws requiring voters to show photo identification. These figures include 29% who Strongly Approve and 42% who Strongly Disapprove. CC BY-SA 4.0 The Key Three States are Virginia, Ohio and Florida. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now. It would be hard to argue that these states are better off now than they were four years ago, given that they have yet to recover the jobs they lost. The presence of the Electoral College, an integral part of the Constitution, makes Swing States very important. These results are derived from tracking poll data collected for the seven days ending October 28, 2012. The disparity in their circumstances highlights the challenges that both the Obama and the Romney campaigns face in framing arguments that will resonate across the country. New data out of Ohio will be released this morning. After Mr. Romney easily won five primaries on April 24, he gave his victory speech in New Hampshire, which held its primary months ago. For years, Arizona was to Democrats what Lucy’s football was to Charlie Brown . Iowa and New Hampshire, where Democrats held the edge in 2008, now both have more registered Republicans. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. “It looks to me,” he said, “that it’s on the cusp right now.”, 9 Swing States, Critical to Presidential Race, Are Mixed Lot. Swing state (englisch für „Schwingstaat“) ist ein Begriff zu Wahlen in den Vereinigten Staaten, der insbesondere bei Präsidentschaftswahlkämpfen verwendet wird. He’s up four in Colorado and six in North Carolina. North Carolina, on the other hand, is ranked as leaning Republican, despite the fact that the Democrats have chosen to hold their national convention there this summer. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
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